I was recently interviewed for an article for the U.S Grains Council, written by Mike Howie.
Corn crop may surpass last year’s production
Corn harvest is underway in some parts of the United States, but most of the Corn Belt where the bulk of the U.S. corn crop is grown, won’t see harvest gearing up for several more weeks.
In the mean time, the U.S. Department of Agriculture provided an early estimate of the 2011-12 corn crop, as have various analysts and those on crop tours across the Midwestern United States. In its August report, USDA forecast U.S. corn production at 328 million tons (12.9 billion bushels), which if realized is 4 percent larger than last year’s crop and the third largest on record.
“While many of us have faced extreme drought or severe flooding, we have persevered and, through the use of improved technologies and practices, we will nearly reach the crop record set under more favorable conditions,” said Bart Schott, a farmer from North Dakota who is president of the National Corn Growers Association.
U.S. corn yields were estimated at 9.61 tons per hectare (153 bushels per acre), which was smaller than some had anticipated but crop tours throughout the Midwest support the smaller number. In fact, some growers wonder if that figure will fall a bit heading into harvest.
“Cold and wet weather kept us from getting the corn crop planted in the upper Midwest this spring, but warm weather this summer allowed it to catch up to where it should be this time of year,” said Noah Hultgren, a farmer from Willmar, Minnesota.
“We did have some heat stress but right now the crop looks pretty good, although I’m not sure if we’ll reach USDA’s yield estimate for the state. It just depends on how we finish out with grain fill and dry down,” he said. Average yields in Minnesota were estimated at 10 tons per hectare (166 bushels per acre) by USDA.
Crop analysts and others, including a delegation from China, on a crop tour across the main U.S. growing areas provided a mixed bag of numbers. There were areas across the Midwest with the potential for very good yields and areas where yields were likely going to be below expectations. A solid production estimate may be difficult to come by until harvest is fully underway.
“Over the last several years there has been discussion on and off about U.S. and global corn supplies, but in the end there has been plenty of corn to meet demand,” Hultgren said. “I’ve no doubt this year that there will again be plenty of corn to go around, although obviously prices have moved upward.”
It's fun to share my opinion with respected writers on the current crop. I'd love to share my opinion with you about farm land values, real estate appraisals, and 1031 tax-deferred exchanges as well. Please let me know if there is anything I can provide to you.
Thanks,
Noah Hultgren
Farmlandman.com
320-894-7528
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Crop year has been a challenge
No doubt this has been a challenging year for crops, with a long, wet spring and slow planting progress. Now the ground is dry in a lot of parts of Southern Minnesota. I just saw a crop and weather report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, saying that topsoil in the state ranked at 7 percent very short, 22 percent short, 64 percent adequate and 7 percent surplus.
The recent high temperatures and low amounts of rainfall have started to put stress on the crops, especially soybeans. We could use some good weather in the next month and a half to really bring yields back.
We haven't had much trouble with diseases so far this year. Farmers interested in more information about crop diseases that might be affecting their fields can find a lot of useful information at www.extension.umn.edu/cropdiseases.
Have a great week!
The recent high temperatures and low amounts of rainfall have started to put stress on the crops, especially soybeans. We could use some good weather in the next month and a half to really bring yields back.
We haven't had much trouble with diseases so far this year. Farmers interested in more information about crop diseases that might be affecting their fields can find a lot of useful information at www.extension.umn.edu/cropdiseases.
Have a great week!
Friday, August 12, 2011
Food Prices Will Increase
Just read an interesting article today in the West Central Tribune about how corn supply is going to be a little tighter this year, which will likely lead to higher food prices. Here's the article, written by Christopher Leonard:
"Americans can expect to pay slightly higher food prices next year because of expectations that an unseasonably hot summer damaged much of this year’s corn crop. But the rise in grocery prices might not be severe because farmers are sitting on larger supplies ahead of the fall harvest, and demand for corn is falling.
The U.S. Agriculture Department estimated Thursday that the fall harvest won’t yield as much corn as first estimated. High temperatures in key U.S. corn-growing states have damaged about 4 percent of the coming yield. The price of corn jumped 26 cents to $7.14 a bushel after the report was released. That’s almost twice the price paid last year. But it’s below the record $7.99 reached in June. Corn is used in everything from beef to cereal to soft drinks.
It typically takes six months for a change in corn prices to affect products on supermarket shelves. Traders worry that grain shortages could return next year because of the damaged crops. Farmers are expected to have a surplus of 940 million bushels when the harvest begins next month, the USDA said. That’s roughly a 26-day supply of corn, slightly more than the previous month’s estimate. But the USDA said the corn surplus could dwindle next fall to only 714 million bushels — or about a 20-day supply. A 30-day supply is considered healthy.
For all of 2011, the USDA predicts food prices will rise 3 percent to 4 percent. Last month, it estimated that food inflation could slow next year to between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent. But that figure will likely change because of the damaged crops. The USDA will release its next estimate later this month. In any case, “I think consumers can expect higher food prices going forward,” said Jason Ward, an analyst with Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis. This year’s harvest will still be larger than last fall’s harvest of 12.45 billion bushels. In the spring, farmers planted the second-largest crop since World War II. And the supply squeeze won’t be as severe as it might have been.
High prices have led ranchers to cut their orders and seek alternative feeds for their livestock, such as wheat. Ethanol producers have also cut demand “Price is going to slow down demand,” Ward said. A smaller surplus drove corn prices higher earlier this year. Global demand for corn, soybeans and wheat has outstripped production for the last 10 years. Surpluses, vital to a stable food supply, have shrunk. When surpluses drop as low as they are now, even relatively small declines in supply can send crop prices sharply higher on global commodities markets."
That's food for thought - but I hope pop prices don't go up too much!
Have a good one,
Noah Hultgren
The Farmland Man
"Americans can expect to pay slightly higher food prices next year because of expectations that an unseasonably hot summer damaged much of this year’s corn crop. But the rise in grocery prices might not be severe because farmers are sitting on larger supplies ahead of the fall harvest, and demand for corn is falling.
The U.S. Agriculture Department estimated Thursday that the fall harvest won’t yield as much corn as first estimated. High temperatures in key U.S. corn-growing states have damaged about 4 percent of the coming yield. The price of corn jumped 26 cents to $7.14 a bushel after the report was released. That’s almost twice the price paid last year. But it’s below the record $7.99 reached in June. Corn is used in everything from beef to cereal to soft drinks.
It typically takes six months for a change in corn prices to affect products on supermarket shelves. Traders worry that grain shortages could return next year because of the damaged crops. Farmers are expected to have a surplus of 940 million bushels when the harvest begins next month, the USDA said. That’s roughly a 26-day supply of corn, slightly more than the previous month’s estimate. But the USDA said the corn surplus could dwindle next fall to only 714 million bushels — or about a 20-day supply. A 30-day supply is considered healthy.
For all of 2011, the USDA predicts food prices will rise 3 percent to 4 percent. Last month, it estimated that food inflation could slow next year to between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent. But that figure will likely change because of the damaged crops. The USDA will release its next estimate later this month. In any case, “I think consumers can expect higher food prices going forward,” said Jason Ward, an analyst with Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis. This year’s harvest will still be larger than last fall’s harvest of 12.45 billion bushels. In the spring, farmers planted the second-largest crop since World War II. And the supply squeeze won’t be as severe as it might have been.
High prices have led ranchers to cut their orders and seek alternative feeds for their livestock, such as wheat. Ethanol producers have also cut demand “Price is going to slow down demand,” Ward said. A smaller surplus drove corn prices higher earlier this year. Global demand for corn, soybeans and wheat has outstripped production for the last 10 years. Surpluses, vital to a stable food supply, have shrunk. When surpluses drop as low as they are now, even relatively small declines in supply can send crop prices sharply higher on global commodities markets."
That's food for thought - but I hope pop prices don't go up too much!
Have a good one,
Noah Hultgren
The Farmland Man
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
